Bitcoin Is Back to Test $76,000

In my last post on Bitcoin (BTC), I said I'd treat this as a range bounce until $80300–80560 was reclaimed on the 4H — and in the end it failed to get over that zone.

After a candle closed below $78500, $78117–77620 opened up again, and this time price came down to $76464, so it's fair to say the previous rebound support has been broken.

On the weekly chart, the major rising support line from $57800 is still alive. Even so, this week's price is below the 50-week moving average at $79668, so it's hard to say the bigger trend has turned back up.

Dropping to the daily, the 10th closed at $76568, sitting right on top of $76264–76518 support.

On the 4H, highs have stepped down since $82300 — through $80560 and $79760 to $78564 — and the line connecting those highs is now near $78990.

Buying isn't strong yet either. Over the last 24 hours, market sell volume exceeded market buy volume by more than $400 million. Futures open interest actually rose while price fell, and the top-trader long share is 68%, so any further drop could set off the liquidation stack below.

So until $78955–78990 is reclaimed on the 4H, I'm leaning toward another visit to the $75500 area.

A daily close below $76264 opens the way to the next weekly support at $74508. Conversely, if price reclaims $77800 and then settles above $78955, the call shifts to a retest of $79668–79769, and the current bearish read is invalidated.

CPI drops at 9:30 tonight (KST), and the FOMC is on the calendar next week. In the end, all that matters this weekend is whether BTC can hold $76264 into the daily close.