Altseason Is Coming, So Why Hasn't My Coin Moved?

Over the past week, Bitcoin dominance slipped from 60.17% to 59.68%, and altcoin market cap excluding BTC and ETH grew by more than 4%. USDT dominance came down too, suggesting money that had been parked in cash is gradually flowing back into crypto.

CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index has also climbed from 23 on September 1 to 42 today. But it only counts as altseason when 75% of top alts outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, and we're not there yet. Money has started rotating into alts, sure, but it's not a market where everything rises together yet.

It isn't just piling into Ethereum, either. ETH's share barely moved all last week, while the rest of the alt market cap grew more than 4%. Even within alts, money is starting to spread around.

Plenty of alts flashed green. But look closer and only a handful like RAY and METIS really ran — entire sectors didn't move together. For now it looks more like a stock-picker's market than altseason.

Bitcoin (BTC) closed last week at $80,341, almost exactly at the weekly MA50 of $80,373. It rallied as high as $82,300 midweek but failed to clear the prior weekly high at $82,850, so the big W isn't complete yet. For alts to run further, Bitcoin likely needs to spend time holding below this zone without breaking down.

Derivatives, however, still make it hard to relax. Top-trader long share is 67% and funding is positive, yet 24-hour CVD shows roughly $84M in net selling. The order book has an $81,300 ask wall facing off against a $79,100 bid wall, with long liquidations clustered below at $78,898 and $78,337. A 4-hour close below $79,100 could mean a BTC correction grows before any alt rotation does.

This week, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) comes out on September 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled at the same time the next day. If inflation runs hotter than expected, the liquidation zone below $79,100 could open up first; if the pressure eases, there's room to retest $81,300 and $82,300.

What to watch from here is Bitcoin's price and dominance. If BTC.D finishes a daily candle below 59.05% while Bitcoin holds above $79,100, and TOTAL3 clears the August high of about $791.5B, we can say money has spread more broadly. Conversely, if Bitcoin gives up $78,337, watch whether USDT.D climbs back above 7%. If both happen together, altseason hopes need to be shelved for a while.

So for now we're closer to the entrance than to a confirmed altseason. The numbers back up why altseason talk is coming up, but it's still not a market where any coin you pick goes up. Leadership will probably keep rotating from Monday on, and this week I'm more curious about how widely money spreads than about Bitcoin's price alone.