SOL's 2.5-Month Triangle Hits Its Apex — Up 3% and Pushing Higher

Solana is at $78 and is the strongest major today at +3%. The triangle it has been carving out for two and a half months has finally reached its apex.

Structurally, the lows have kept stepping up — 60 in June, then 64, then 70.6. The highs have been capped ever since 84 in July. Higher lows plus lower highs creates a triangle consolidation, and Bollinger Band width has shrunk from 25% to 8.6%. A squeeze this tight means a big move in one direction is likely coming soon.

Today price is pushing up through the line that has been capping the highs. It's not a confirmed breakout yet — we need a close above 79 to say the triangle resolved to the upside. With triangle breakouts, the hold matters more than the first candle, because fakeouts are so common.

Flows look decent. OBV has been turning up through August, and price is riding above 76, the heaviest volume shelf. That means there's support right underfoot if it dips.

The real gate, though, is 81–84. The 200-day MA at 81.3 overlaps with the July high at 84, so that zone is heavy. More than the 79 break itself, how price reacts in this zone is the core of this setup. The Kimchi premium (the gap between Korean and global exchange prices) is at -1.7%, a discount, so Korean retail is still quiet — which could actually mean we're closer to the early stage.

I wrote that ETH was forming a double bottom while making higher lows, and Solana is drawing a similar picture. This is a spot to check whether warmth is spreading to the alts.

Invalidation is 73.4. Lose that and the triangle has resolved to the downside, so the chart has to be redrawn. I plan to confirm a hold above 79 and follow along while watching the reaction at 81–84. Rather than buying everything in advance, taking a half-size position after confirmation is plenty here.

Good luck out there — just my take.