XRP Hits $1: The Last Line of Defense, With a Negative Kimchi Premium

XRP has finally made it down to $1. It tagged 0.986 five days ago and is now battling just above the $1 mark. Hard to believe this is the same coin that hit 3.18 last September.. Since the bounce to 1.55 in May, it has printed nothing but lower highs for three straight months.

Every MA is overhead. The 50-day sits at 1.07 and the 200-day is way up at 1.28. Price hasn't broken above the downtrend line either, and price is grinding lower right along it.

The most disappointing part is OBV. After a drop this deep you'd expect to see signs of dip-buying, but OBV is sitting near new lows, so there's no sign of accumulation. Volume keeps fading too, so this isn't a capitulation-flush-and-reverse setup yet either.

The mood on Korean exchanges is no better. XRP's Kimchi premium (the gap between Korean and global prices) is currently -1.3%, i.e. a reverse premium. XRP is the retail favorite on Upbit, so when local demand shows up, the premium is the first thing to pop. A reverse premium means a lot of people have simply walked away haha

Still, $1 is a psychological line, so the level matters. If it builds a double bottom with 0.986 and turns here, things get interesting, but nothing has been confirmed yet. Even on a bounce it has to clear 1.05~1.07 resistance, and the supply zone around 1.14 above that is heavy too.

So I'm just setting my conditions and waiting. If it closes below $1, I let it go. If 1.07 is reclaimed, I'll look at it again then. Jackson Hole is on Friday too, so the whole market could get shaken this week. No need to jump in early and take the hit.

Good luck out there, everyone. For reference only~