BTC Breaks Out: +12.8% in Two Days, Now at the March 2024 High

Two days ago I wrote that "Jackson Hole will probably be the trigger," and that's exactly how it played out. BTC ran from 64,725 to 73,025 in two days, +12.8%.

What matters is that volume came with it. On 8/19 it was 2.3x the 20-day average, and on 8/20 it was 2.8x. This wasn't a move on empty volume. OBV had been making higher lows all through July and spiked together with price this time. I read that as someone accumulating ahead of the move.

And BTC reclaimed the MA200 (68,990). That's a line it couldn't get above for more than two months, since early June.

But the current spot is a bit tricky

73,281 is the 61.8% retracement of the drop from the May high (82,850) to the July low (57,800), and 73,777 is the March 2024 weekly high. The two sit within $500 of each other, and price is right in between.

The order book also shows heavy sell orders at 74,000. That's not a projection — those are live limit orders sitting there right now.

What about below?

There's a fairly thick stack of bids at 70,800, more than twice the size of the sell wall above. That said, long liquidations are clustered in the 69,000–71,000 zone, so if price slips down there, it'll start to get pulled lower.

Invalidation first. If the 68,900–69,335 zone breaks on a closing basis, I'll treat this breakout as failed. That's where the 8/19 close and the 8/20 low are, and the MA200 sits there too. A brief intraday poke doesn't count — closes only.

RSI 81 — overbought, so time to sell?

The usual line is "it's overheated, so it'll pull back." I used to see it that way too, but I got curious, went through past cases, and changed my mind a bit. More often than not, price actually kept going after RSI crossed 80. Overbought is less a sign of a reversal and more a sign of how strong the move is. At the very least, it's hard to use this alone as a reason to sell.

The Kimchi premium (the gap between Korean exchange prices and global prices) is -1.36%, i.e. a discount. Korean exchange prices are below offshore prices. This rally wasn't driven by Korean buyers.

Bottom line

We've had two straight days of breakout on real volume, and the MA200 is reclaimed. The direction is up. But right overhead, three things stack up — the 61.8% retracement, the 2024 high, and the sell orders — so I see this as a spot to take a breather at least once.

A close above 73,777 leaves no heavy supply until 77,489. Conversely, a close below 68,900 and this breakout never happened.

Investment decisions are your own responsibility; this post is for reference only.