Bitcoin Slips Back Into the $70Ks After the Jobs Report

Bitcoin (BTC) pushed above $80389–80600 yesterday, then closed the September 4 daily candle at $79660, slipping back below that zone.

In the US jobs report (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm), nonfarm payrolls came in at 162K, way above the 55K expected, while unemployment held at 4.1%. The most common take online is that jobs were so strong that the odds of a September rate hike have gone back up.

The day before, US spot Bitcoin ETF flows (https://farside.co.uk/btc/) showed more than $730 million in inflows. But giving up $80K the day after that money came in suggests that, in the short term, the selling that followed the jobs shock was stronger.

Looking at dominance as well, BTC.D eased from 60.34% before the jobs release to 60.16%, but TOTAL3, the altcoin market cap, also shrank from about $766 billion to $760 billion. Over the same window USDT.D rose from 6.78% to 6.90%, so this looks less like money rotating from BTC into alts and more like money retreating from crypto as a whole into cash.

Zooming out to a month, BTC.D has risen from 59.33% to 60.11%, and its lows keep stepping up. There's a lot of talk lately about alt season coming, but going by the numbers right now, capital is still more heavily tilted toward Bitcoin.

Flows have changed since yesterday too. 24-hour CVD has flipped to more than $600 million in net selling, with orders over $100K making up most of it. In the order book, sell orders at $80600 are facing off against bids at $78500, and top traders' long ratio is 67.9%, so the liquidation zones below are in play as well.

From around $79500 now, a 4H reclaim of $80600 brings $82300–82850 into view next. That's about 3–4% above here, and only a daily close above $82850 would count as clearing the previous high.

On the bigger picture, the weekly looks like a W pattern. After a weekly break above the $82850 neckline, $97924 comes first, and the W's measured move projects to $105700–107900. But it isn't confirmed yet, so it's too early to talk about it as a target.

Conversely, a 4H close below $78500 brings the $78200–77800 long-liquidation zone into play first. If that doesn't hold either and BTC loses $76264 on the daily, we have to allow for roughly a 6% drop to the $74508 weekly support.

So for now, until $80600 is reclaimed, I'm leaning a bit more toward another test of $78500. The next big catalyst is US CPI on September 11, so even if we get a weekend bounce, a close above 80K is the first thing to confirm.