Bitcoin: Lose the Range Floor and 80K Is Next

Bitcoin closed last week's candle above the May high, but this week it has slid for two straight days and is now back at the bottom of the range.

As the chart above shows, highs have been edging lower since last week, while the bottom has held at the same level three times. Pressure on top, a flat floor below. Measure the height of the range down from the floor, and a breakdown targets around 80K.

This range floor isn't a random spot. It's exactly the 38.2% retracement of the move from this month's mid-month low to last week's high, and long liquidations are clustered right below it. Whether it holds here will decide this week's direction.

Order flow leans bearish. The top-trader long share is lopsided at 65%, and when trades are broken down by order size, large orders have consistently been on the sell side. The biggest bid wall on the book is also at 81.8K, below the range floor. USDT dominance rising again and most alts falling are also a drag, and PCE is due tomorrow night.

Of course, you can read it the other way too. On the daily alone, it looks like a bull flag resting after a sharp rally, and the retracement is still shallow. If the 4-hour closes above the range top at 85.3K, the bearish call is invalidated and the bull-flag interpretation is confirmed, in which case it would retest last week's highs.

- Range floor 82.6K~82.9K
- Next support 80.4K~80.9K
- Range target 79.7K~79.9K

This week, I think it's more likely to give up the range floor and correct to the next support. If it keeps sliding from there, it could drop to where the range target and the 61.8% retracement overlap.

With longs crowded heading into PCE, I'm leaning toward a flush before the next move.