ETH Tags $2,356 and Turns Right Around

In my last post I said that if Ethereum (ETH) gave up $2,356, this rally's structure would be over — and yesterday's low was $2,356.41. It tagged almost exactly that level and closed back up at $2,391.92.

Starting with the weekly, the long-term floor line connecting the April 2025 low and this June's low has never been broken. It's some distance from the current price, though, and just overhead the 50-week MA and the recent highs are clustered at $2,542–2,567.

On the daily, the long-term line coming down from the January high runs through that same $2,542–2,567 zone. Highs haven't crossed it since, and as the price high rose from $2,547 to $2,567, the RSI high fell from 88.3 to 77.5.

The bigger structure below is still alive. Lows have been rising since $1,506 in June, and OBV lows have risen right along with them. But recent daily volume has remained below the 20-day average, so it's hard to say buying strength is back on the strength of this one wick.

The 4-hour is simpler. Price sits between the descending trendline from $2,567 and the $2,356 floor line, and this was the floor's second test. There's an ask wall right above at $2,442, and large orders over the past 24 hours are skewed to the sell side too, so for now this is closer to holding on than to a confirmed bounce.

Reclaiming $2,442–2,465 opens the way to retest $2,542–2,567. Conversely, a daily close below $2,356 invalidates this structure, and next I'd watch the $2,304 bid wall and the $2,316 Fib zone.

With the jobs report out tomorrow night, whether this wick that stopped right at the last line can hold for one more day has become pretty important.