Why ICP Hit a Wall Right as It Tagged $3

Bitcoin fell 1.5% on September 7, but Internet Computer (ICP) went the other way, rising more than 9%. It tagged $3.127 intraday and finished at $2.989, with volume well above normal.

Still, it's too early to call $3 a new starting point. The measured-move target for the move that began at $1.994 on August 1 was $3.041, and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the May high to the August low is $3.06. This high landed right in that zone.

On the weekly, last week closed at $2.735, clearing the MA20 but staying below the MA50 at $2.922. Even though it traded above $3 this week, that candle is still open. The downtrend line connecting the January and May highs is also passing around $3.32 right now, so it's too soon to say the long-term downtrend is over.

The short-term breakout itself looks fine. It closed above the August high of $2.714 on September 6, and the next day even bigger volume came in and pushed it to $2.989. That's different from a move that only poked above with an upper wick.

That said, it's not wide open overhead. It needs a daily close above $3.13 to open the June high at $3.231, and after that comes $3.32~3.35, where the downtrend line and the May high converge. $4.092 is a number you can only bring up after that zone is cleared.

On the 4-hour, it knocked on $3.06~3.13 several times before closing at $2.989. Below, $2.87~2.90 is the first zone to check, and if it gives up $2.714 on a daily basis, the breakout falls back inside the August range. After that, watch $2.40~2.43, where the weekly MA20 and the top of the volume profile sit.

On the futures side, open interest didn't grow as much as price, and funding is an ordinary 0.01%. This doesn't look like a rally pushed up by leverage alone. However, the long account ratio is at 70%, so a slip below $2.87 could speed up the shakeout.

Reclaiming $3 is definitely a welcome change. But at this level, it's more accurate to say it has already reached the first target of the measured move than to say it's going higher. For a coin that's been pressed down this long, even seeing a round number like $3 back feels good, but now the key is whether it can close a daily candle above $3.13.