Does Bitcoin Going Up Mean Altseason?

When Bitcoin bounced off $76,000, I figured alts would follow, but the morning felt like the exact opposite. The $76,264 level from my last post held for now, and price is in the $77,600s. The candle is still open, so it's too early to say the bounce is done.

On the weekly chart, last week opened at $80,342 and closed at $76,842. It failed to hold $80K and dropped back below the weekly MA50 at $78,750. That doesn't mean the bigger trend collapsed in one go, though. Below, $74,508 and the weekly MA20 at $70,077 are still there.

On the daily, price reacted at $76,046~76,518. That's where the September 2 low and the retracement of the run from $57,800 to $82,300 overlap. If this zone is lost on a daily basis, the next support is $74,508. At that point the M pattern formed at $81,479 and $82,300 also needs to be taken seriously.

But look at the alts and it's a different story. Even counting only coins with decent volume, decliners far outnumbered advancers. When Bitcoin slipped 0.57% the previous day, the alt average fell 0.67%. Bitcoin held up, but alts dropped more.

In the morning, BTC dominance rose to 59.42% and USDT dominance to 7.06%, while alt market cap excluding BTC and ETH shrank to about $751.2B. In the afternoon, though, BTC dominance eased to 59.34% and USDT dominance to 6.98%, and alt market cap recovered to about $761.0B. Some money did flow back into alts, but calling it altseason based on one day's move is still premature.

On the 4-hour, price has touched the support line connecting the September 5 low at $79,442 and the September 11 low at $76,046 four times. The upper line has a different slope, so it's hard to call this a descending channel or a converging pattern. Right now it's trying to form a W at $76,046 and $76,500. The current 4-hour candle is above the middle high of $77,506, but it hasn't closed yet, so the W only counts as complete on a close above that price.

Trade flow didn't show strong buying either. As of the morning tally, the past 24 hours saw about $190M in net selling overall, while orders over $1M alone showed about $120M in net selling. Meanwhile, top futures traders are 69.9% long. There are long liquidations at $75,935 and $75,167 below, so if $76,000 breaks, the move could accelerate.

For now, the first job is to reclaim the 4-hour MA50 at $78,186 and MA100 at $78,414. A close above $78,414 weakens the short-term downtrend. Conversely, a daily close below $76,046 puts $74,508 next. Bitcoin going up doesn't automatically mean altseason.