Binance Security Incident — Why Bitcoin's 77K Support Looks Shaky

Bitcoin (BTC) fell out of its range after Binance temporarily suspended withdrawals on several networks. Early this morning, Binance said it had temporarily suspended withdrawals on several networks due to a security incident, and its official account posted that withdrawals would resume once the issue is resolved and that customer funds are safe. Tether's and Circle's chief executives said they had frozen more than $1.5 billion and more than $800 million in stablecoins, respectively, but there is no official tally of the losses yet. Can 77K support hold?

This is the BTC 4-hour chart. The 79.2K–81.8K range that had held since last weekend broke on a single candle at 5 a.m. today. That candle, which dropped from 80.8K to 78K, came on more than four times the average volume of the previous 20 candles, and the support line that had been holding up the bottom of the range broke along with it.

In yesterday's post, I said a 4-hour close below 79.2K would open the way to the 77–78K volume zone. After the PCE release overnight, price bounced to 81.9K, then dropped straight into that zone on this one candle.

A lot lines up at 77–77.5K, the zone price is holding now. The price with the most trading over the past 80 days is 77.3K, the largest bid wall on the futures order book (about $50 million) sits at 76.8K, and the remaining long liquidations are clustered at 76.7–77K. 77.5K is also where the drop from the October 2 high has matched the size of the earlier leg down, so a bounce from here wouldn't be surprising.

What matters here is order flow. Breaking down the past day's trades by order size, every bucket from under $1,000 to over $1 million was net selling, totaling more than $800 million. Open interest, which fell as $480 million in longs were liquidated, is rising again at the lows while price holds flat, which suggests short positions are coming in too. Tether dominance also rose from 6.74% to 6.98% in a single day, a sign that money is leaving the market as a whole.

This is the BTC daily chart. The one-year downtrend line from last October's all-time high is now passing through 84.2K, and October's highs keep stepping down: 87.2K, 84.9K, 82K. The support line connecting October's lows also broke with yesterday's daily close at 78K, and the daily 20-day and 50-day moving averages are capping price at 81.7–81.9K.

In the end, I think a 4-hour close below 77K would open the way to 76.2K, the September low area, and then 75K below it. Personally, I'm leaning toward this support giving way one more time until withdrawals fully resume. On the other hand, a daily close back above the broken range bottom at 79.2K would invalidate this view and put the top of the range at 81.8K back in play.

Key resistance 79.2K (broken range bottom)

Key support 77K - 77.5K (80-day volume zone, bid wall)

Next support 75K - 76.2K (September low)

With month-end options expiring at 5 p.m. Korea time today and the weekly close coming on Monday, the first thing to check is whether price closes above 77K, rather than hoping for a bounce.